Large drop in ‘Market Demand’ in Victoria, on Sunday morning 11th October 2026
Sunday morning 11th October 2026 also saw a significant drop in ‘Market Demand’ in Victoria.
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Someone’s gotta be hurting … spot prices down below –$100/MWh in South Australia for hours
A short note with this snapshot from NEMwatch at 11:00 (NEM time) on Sunday 11th October 2026, to highlight some very negative spot prices in South Australia.
A quick look (with ‘next day public’ data) at the (apparent) machinations at Millmerran unit 2 on Friday morning 9th October 2026
Yesterday we noted some strange (apparent) output pattern implied in SCADA data for Millmerran 2 (on Fri 9th Oct 2026). Today we take a closer look at what appears to be a SCADA Data Glitch, via 'next day public' data.
The curious case of extreme Spot Price (and LOR) forecasts for NSW on Saturday 10th October 2026
Last article today – and a short and cryptic one – which follows a bit of ‘show and tell’ with a customer late today - about strange forecasts (in P30 predispatch) for NSW on Saturday evening 10th October and Sunday morning 11th October 2026.
Forecast PEC2 targets temporarily violate in predispatch runs on 9th October 2026
A keen-eyed reader pointed us, today, towards an interesting predispatch outcome for the new PEC2 interconnector.
A 426MW drop in ‘Market Demand’ in Victoria, on Friday morning 9th October 2026
Earlier this morning (Fri 9th Oct 2026) we documented a 512MW (or ~9%) drop in demand in QLD. A few hours later – at the 10:25 dispatch interval (NEM time) – we recorded a 426MW drop in ‘Market Demand’ in VIC.
A bout of significant charging at Waratah BESS, contributing to QLD and NSW price spike (Fri 9th Oct 2026)
An ez2view client and avid WattClarity reader was fast off the mark with a tip to look at Waratah BESS - which (via charging at the time) contributed to the price spike in QLD and NSW.
Other curious events occurred in QLD on Friday morning 9th October 2026 ( QLD Demand, and Millmerran 2)
We’ve already observed some ‘Elevated prices (in QLD and NSW) on Friday morning 9th October 2026 … and then SA a little later’. Later on in the morning we noticed several coincident (or possibly related?) events in QLD.
Elevated prices (in QLD and NSW) on Friday morning 9th October 2026 … and then SA a little later
My ‘elevated prices’ alerts have been quiet for a lengthy period (apart from the odd spikes for FCAS in Tasmania). So a string of alerts for prices > $500/MWh in QLD and NSW, and later SA (on Fri 9th Oct 2026) are worth noting.
A 622MW drop in ‘Market Demand’ in NSW – early Wednesday afternoon 7th October 2026
My ez2view Mobile App alert triggered, to let me know that there’d been a significant drop in ‘Market Demand’ in the NSW region (down 622MW in the 12:40 dispatch interval Wednesday 7th October 2026).
Guest Authored Posts
Loopy – or not?
Guest author, Allan O'Neil takes a look at one particular dispatch interval (09:20 on Sunday morning 4th October 2026) to explore an instance of counter-priced flow incorporating the South Australian and neighbouring regions (including via PEC Stage 2).
The narrowing window: why corporate renewable energy buyers need to act now
Anita, Gilles and Lachlan from ERM explain why corporate buyers can't count on abundant renewable supply, as expiring contracts, data centre growth, coal retirements and delivery risks converge on a 2030 contracting cliff in the NEM.
Detailed Analysis
Supply-side capacity in the NEM over the next 10 years (v1)
Capacity of batteries and hydro is covering capacity lost with retiring thermals. That is, assuming the anticipated developments do eventuate.
Team Australia in Paris: Five observations from CIGRE 2026
A summary of key takeaways from an Australian perspective at the 2026 CIGRE Paris session — where the ongoing challenges of IBR interactions and the impact of data centres appear to be consistent themes across power systems globally.
A partial answer to the questions ‘where is the Energy/Capacity going to come from’ … after Yallourn closure?
Four weeks ago we asked two questions 'where is the Energy/Capacity going to come from (in just 2 years) to replace all that Energy that Yallourn has been producing this winter?'. Here's the start of an answer to that question, though still incomplete...
How the CIS differs from state-based underwriting schemes, and what the industry has suggested about it so far
We look at five design differences between the Capacity Investment Scheme and the state auction schemes that came before and alongside it — and the improvements we've heard suggested by industry and the Nelson Review panel.
Revisiting the CIS-awarded project pipeline, ahead of the ESOO 2026
A year on from our 4-part series about the CIS, we take an updated look at the 89 projects awarded across the scheme's five NEM tenders — comparing what proponents have actually announced compared to the status AEMO assigns them for ESOO reliability modelling.
A down year: a review of Q2 2026 spot prices
This is the 2026 edition of our annual review into Q2 spot prices, where we find that average prices fell sharply in all NEM regions compared to Q2 2025, but more importantly, duration curves are changing shape.
Reflections on supply and demand from a week split between attending and presenting at two very different industry conferences
Last week our team attended the CEC's Wind Industry Forum, then I presented at the EUAA's National Conference the next day. Moving between them in under 48 hours sharply reminded me how differently the NEM's supply and demand sides frame the challenges ahead.
A further look at wind forecasts in the ST PASA timeframe
The trend for declining skill as outlook increases is fairly linear. Encouragingly, outlooks at the 6-day mark still have better skill than random.