Taking a look at tightening aggregate availability of coal units ... one of the reasons for the strengthening Base Load Futures Prices in recent weeks.
So, at 14:30, no prizes for guessing what transpires – captured in two snapshots from the ez2view Mobile App ...
At 14:20 (NEM time) on Monday 12th October 2026, the spot price in (a very hot) NSW spikes close to the Market Price Cap.
As it happens (on this occasion) this snapshot from NEMwatch at 14:10 (NEM time) on Monday 12th October 2026 was pretty close to the mark to when it was forecast in earlier predispatch runs: Briefly: 1) The spot price in NSW is up at $1,341.98/MWh...
In a conversation with a market participant last week, there was discussion about the factors contributing to a climb in baseload futures prices … not just for 2026 Q4 contracts, but also later ones as well. Here's the first part of an exploration.
A very short note with a snapshot of the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget within the ez2view Mobile App, highlighting some spicy forecast prices for the NSW region this afternoon, Monday 12th October 2026.
A short note with this ez2view snapshot at 09:30 (NEM time) on Monday 12th October 2026, to record a brief intermission to service at Project Energy Connect.
Sunday morning 11th October 2026 also saw a significant drop in ‘Market Demand’ in Victoria.
A short note with this snapshot from NEMwatch at 11:00 (NEM time) on Sunday 11th October 2026, to highlight some very negative spot prices in South Australia.
Yesterday we noted some strange (apparent) output pattern implied in SCADA data for Millmerran 2 (on Fri 9th Oct 2026). Today we take a closer look at what appears to be a SCADA Data Glitch, via 'next day public' data.
Last article today – and a short and cryptic one – which follows a bit of ‘show and tell’ with a customer late today - about strange forecasts (in P30 predispatch) for NSW on Saturday evening 10th October and Sunday morning 11th October 2026.
Earlier this morning (Fri 9th Oct 2026) we documented a 512MW (or ~9%) drop in demand in QLD. A few hours later – at the 10:25 dispatch interval (NEM time) – we recorded a 426MW drop in ‘Market Demand’ in VIC.
An ez2view client and avid WattClarity reader was fast off the mark with a tip to look at Waratah BESS - which (via charging at the time) contributed to the price spike in QLD and NSW.
We’ve already observed some ‘Elevated prices (in QLD and NSW) on Friday morning 9th October 2026 … and then SA a little later’. Later on in the morning we noticed several coincident (or possibly related?) events in QLD.
My ‘elevated prices’ alerts have been quiet for a lengthy period (apart from the odd spikes for FCAS in Tasmania). So a string of alerts for prices > $500/MWh in QLD and NSW, and later SA (on Fri 9th Oct 2026) are worth noting.
My ez2view Mobile App alert triggered, to let me know that there’d been a significant drop in ‘Market Demand’ in the NSW region (down 622MW in the 12:40 dispatch interval Wednesday 7th October 2026).
As has been the case for many years, a number of us will be attending All Energy Conference and Exhibition in 3 weeks in Melbourne (Wed 28th and Thu 29th Oct 2026). Will we see you there?
Sophie’s article on RenewEconomy drew our attention to the fact that Offshore Wind Victoria had recently published this 12-page glossy about ‘Victoria offshore wind auction – Australian-fires Request for Proposal now open’.
The latest MT PASA results, published today (Tuesday 6th October 2026) show no Low Reserve Conditions forecast.
Given that the fire onsite ‘destroyed Tungatinah Power Station’ (to quote Hydro Tasmania) it will surprise noone that today (Mon 5th Oct 2026) Hydro Tasmania has updated the MT PASA DUID Availability data for the station to show a more staggered (and much longer) return-to-service...