Australia’s East Coast winter gas market softens as volatility rises
Krishan Pal Birda from Rystad takes a look at winter 2026 gas demand in south-eastern Australia, and explores what it might mean for future years.
winter
Eternal sunshine: Recent and projected patterns in solar performance
This analysis from Endgame Analytics highlights how solar revenues are increasingly concentrated in winter and shoulder periods as daytime prices collapse. Using historical data and forward modelling, it examines what the deepening duck curve means for solar returns, risk, and the need for seasonal storage.
NSW records highest winter demand in fifteen years, whilst high prices eventuate in SA on Tuesday evening 1st July 2025
Cold winter conditions in NSW have pushed market demand in the region above 13GW this evening. Meanwhile, high prices have stuck around in SA.
Cold weather drives electricity ‘Market Demand’ higher (and higher than AEMO’s earlier forecasts)
I thought it would be worth adding a couple snapshots from the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view looking at ‘Market Demand’ as at various dispatch intervals on Thursday 26th June 2025 looking backwards ~7 days and forwards ~7 days
High prices and tight spare supply, as NEM-wide IRPM drops down to 11.48% on Wednesday 11th June 2025
Cold weather this evening has brought prices above $7,000/MWh and tight reserve margins across the NEM.
Comparing winter temperatures at Archerfield over 19 years of history
A couple days after the end of 'winter 2024' the temperature has dropped by 10 degrees in Archerfield. We take a look at how temperatures in Archerfield through winter 2024 compare with the 18 preceding years to see how remarkable was the ramp in temperatures...
Weird & Wacky Winter Weather
With winter having a concerted last blast (or having launched straight into summer in northern Australia) it's strange times indeed.
Trended NEM-wide IRPM over 9 days in June 2024
A short article in conjunction with GenInsights Quarterly Updates for 2024 Q2, trending NEM-wide IRPM over 9 days in June 2024.
NEM-wide IRPM might be below 15% during evenings the next 3 days… Tue 18th, Wed 19th and Thu 20th June 2024
Following a 90-minute period of low IRPM yesterday evening (Mon 17th June 2024) we take a quick look at see forecast low levels of IRPM for Tue 18th June evening (very low!) and Wed 19th June and Thu 20th June.
Snapshot of Monday evening 3rd June 2024
A quick article with a snapshot from NEMwatch at the 18:25 dispatch interval to highlight a couple things we might come back to later.
On Thu 19th October, the AER published Quarterly Review for 2023 Q3
A short article on Saturday about an AER's publication that was released in the past week ... a review of 2023 Q3.
A cold evening drives NEM-wide demand high, and IRPM low, on Tuesday 20th June 2023
The 'Australian Energy Week' conference this week in Melbourne, and the NEM this evening has given a real-time example of some energy transition challenges.
AEMO releases outlook for Winter 2023
Worth a short note that (on the first official day of winter … though in temperature terms it started some weeks ago) they have published a Media Release ‘AEMO forecasts improved winter 2023 for Australia’s energy system, risks remain’ that would understandably be of keen...
IRPM drops below 15% on Tuesday 23rd May 2023
A short article this evening noting IRPM has dropped below 15% on a NEM-wide basis (a tight supply-demand balance).
New lowest point for QLD ‘Market Demand’ on Sunday 7th August … excluding outages
QLD 'Market Demand' is dropping past prior low point (excluding 25th May 2021 with the loss of load).
One more factor to consider … wind harvest drops under 1,000MW on Monday evening, NEM wide
Adding to the complexity of a dire supply-demand balance, aggregate production from wind has dropped below 1000MW today.
Friday (10th June) morning volatility in QLD and NSW
A brief note about this morning's volatility.
Brisbane’s week is ‘Coldest in 118 years’ … what is the outlook for electricity demand?
A news article this morning along the lines of 'coldest in 100 years' jumped out at me.
NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’ exceeds 32,000MW on Tuesday 7th June 2022 … highest winter peak in many years!
On Tuesday evening (7th June 2022) the NEM exceeded 32,000MW for a brief period of time ... we have a quick look at how this stacks up against prior winter period peak demand events.
Volatile prices on Friday evening 3rd June 2022
A short article to document another volatility evening.