Forecast PEC2 targets temporarily violate in predispatch runs on 9th October 2026
A keen-eyed reader pointed us, today, towards an interesting predispatch outcome for the new PEC2 interconnector.
Energy Transition
A large collection of articles pertaining to the ongoing ‘Energy Transition’ in any of a number of ways.
Specific sub-categories relate to such things as Coal Closure, and other aspects of the transition.
Offshore Wind in Victoria to receive a CfD and an Availability payment … but where was that structure in the ESEM process?
Sophie’s article on RenewEconomy drew our attention to the fact that Offshore Wind Victoria had recently published this 12-page glossy about ‘Victoria offshore wind auction – Australian-fires Request for Proposal now open’.
Latest MT PASA modelling results show no Low Reserve Conditions
The latest MT PASA results, published today (Tuesday 6th October 2026) show no Low Reserve Conditions forecast.
Loopy – or not?
Guest author, Allan O'Neil takes a look at one particular dispatch interval (09:20 on Sunday morning 4th October 2026) to explore an instance of counter-priced flow incorporating the South Australian and neighbouring regions (including via PEC Stage 2).
Supply-side capacity in the NEM over the next 24 years (v2)
In the early years of the ISP trajectories, we observe coal retirements happening sooner than slated. For example, Accelerated Transition has all coal retired by July 2033.
An initial look at the current testing schedule, for NSW1-SA1
I thought this was worth a separate post – given that the focus is much longer-dated testing schedule (current plan) for Project Energy Connect.
Project Energy Connect goes live today (Thursday 1st October 2026)
Today is Thursday 1st October 2026 which means that there are a number of milestones achieved today with respect to the NEM – including Project Energy Connect going live.
PEC Stage 2 appearing in predispatch
Yesterday (Tue 29th Sept 2026) we saw a little of PEC Stage 2 in predispatch. Today (Wed 30th Sept 2026) we saw more.
Pre-PEC gremlins strike … AEMO notes ‘Suspect Lack Of Reserve Level 3 (LOR3) in the SA Region on 01/10/2026’
It was spurious, but worth noting that the AEMO published MN145396 at 13:10 (NEM time) on Tuesday - noting forecast LOR3 (load shedding) in South Australia on Thursday morning (1st October 2026).
PEC Stage 2 enters the ST timeframe
That 1st of October date for go-live is now inside the ‘ST’ (short term) time horizon. As such, we are seeing the new NSW to SA interconnector included in ST-PASA results.
Supply-side capacity in the NEM over the next 10 years (v1)
Capacity of batteries and hydro is covering capacity lost with retiring thermals. That is, assuming the anticipated developments do eventuate.
What 19 GW and 55 GWh of batteries should do to coal’s evening peak
In February David Leitch predicted batteries would eat coal volumes, not just price. Here he checks that call against the pipeline: 19 GW and 55 GWh coming, and up to 6 GW of coal displaced.
A partial answer to the questions ‘where is the Energy/Capacity going to come from’ … after Yallourn closure?
Four weeks ago we asked two questions 'where is the Energy/Capacity going to come from (in just 2 years) to replace all that Energy that Yallourn has been producing this winter?'. Here's the start of an answer to that question, though still incomplete...
What’s noted in the 2026 ESOO, about the looming closure of Yallourn Power Station?
It’s quite a topical question (that we’ve contributed to recently), so I thought I would have a look at what is noted within the ESOO about the looming closure of Yallourn.
Our current hypothesis, for the strange-looking modelled results in Monday’s MT PASA data, relating to PEC Stage 2
Earlier this week, we looked at the first round of AEMO modelled MT PASA results for the Project EnergyConnect, and had some questions. After some digging, we think we understand...
A first look at PEC Stage 2 in AEMO’s MT PASA weekly data set
I was curious to see how the PEC Stage 2 (i.e. NSW1-SA1) is being represented in the new data sets now appearing in the MT PASA process. Hence this initial view, which prompts questions.
Over one month of continuous production at Tamar Valley Combined Cycle
Whilst we’re speaking about events on Saturday 15th August 2026, worth also noting that today marks over one month of ongoing production from the Tamar Valley combined cycle plant in Tasmania.
Current status of closure date for all 4 x Yallourn units
via 'Forecast Convergence' widget, we see (to date) consistent reporting to the AEMO of envisaged closure of all 4 x units at Yallourn being 1st July 2028.
A week later, AEMO MT PASA run shows only shortfalls in South Australia
Given the discussions about looming Yallourn closure, and the implications of this, worth noting a change in the latest weekly MT PASA run.
An introduction to battery revenue hedging with intraday time block derivatives
Paul Austin explains how utility-scale batteries can use time block derivatives — selling Evening Peak and buying Midday contracts — to lock in intraday spreads and reduce exposure to spot prices, giving a useful baseline for budgeting, investment cases and revenue support scheme bids.